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The Structure of Counterfactual Thought

University of Western Ontario

James M. Olson

University of Western Ontario

The structure of counterfactual thoughts (evaluations of past outcomes based on 'might have been" alternatives) was investigated. Subjects read stories describing a student preparing for an exam, with the outcome (success vs. failure) and past record of the student (good vs. poor) manipulated. Subjects then 'undid" the outcome by altering (mutating) events that preceded it. Outcome valence significantly predicted the structure of counterfactual alternatives, such that subtractive structures (which delete elements to reconstruct reality) were more likely after success whereas additive structures (which add new elements to reconstruct reality) were more likely after failure. Additive structures were even more predominant when the failure was framed by a history of past failures. No main effect of outcome valence was found on the total number of counterfactual thoughts recorded. These findings point to the utility of differentiating counterfactuals on the basis of structural types.

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