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The Monty Hall Dilemma Donald Granberg

University of Missouri

The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) uses two-stage decisions with a host, guest, and a prize behind one of three doors. After the guest makes a choice, the host reveals another door as incorrect. The dilemma is whether to stick with the initial hunch or switch to the remaining alternative. The correct but counterintuitive solution is to switch. In the first encounter, only 12% switch. Across trials, switching increases to 55%. Altering the reward structure affects switching. The symmetrical counterpart to the Mil is the Roulette Dilemma in which it is correct to stick with the initial choice. In the latter, switching begins low but does not decrease across trials. People misapprehend probabilities in the MlHD, neglecting the knowledgeable host cue. People would feel more frustrated and angry if they switched and lost. TheMHD's relation to illusion of control, beliefterseverance, and the status quo bias is discussed.

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