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Event Accessibility and Context Effects in Causal Inference: Judgment of a Different Order

Center for Decision Research, Graduate School of Business University of Chicago sp-stapel1macmail.psy.uva.nl

Russell Spears

University of Amsterdam

Two studies examine how the influence of an accessible context event affects causal judgments of an ambiguous target as a function of the order in which the two events are explained. It is proposed that whether judgment of a target event is contrasted from or assimilated toward the implications of a context event depends on the distinctness of the context information at the time of judgment. Results supported the prediction that when participants were required to judge a context event before a target event, the context event would be perceived as more distinct, leading to comparison and contrast, whereas the reverse judgmental order would render the same context event relatively indistinct and lead to assimilation. Findings are discussed in the light of literature on causal judgments and recent models of assimilation and contrast effects.

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