This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in ISI Web of Science Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via ISI Web of Science (9) Citing Articles via Google Scholar Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Shrauger, J. S. Articles by Walter, T. J. Search for Related Content PubMed Articles by Shrauger, J. S. Articles by Walter, T. J. Social Bookmarking                   What's this?

Depressive Symptoms and Accuracy in the Prediction of Future Events

State University of New York-Buffalo

Eric Mariano

State University of New York-Buffalo

Todd J. Walter

University of Florida

In two studies, the authors examined the accuracy of dysphoric and nondysphoric individuals' predictions about their future behavior. Participants predicted the occurrence of a variety of everyday events and reported on their occurrence over a period of either 4 (Study 1) or 8 (Study 2) weeks. As expected, dysphoria was unrelated to overall accuracy, but nondysphorics tended to be more accurate in making optimistic predictions and dysphorics tended to be more accurate in making pessimistic predictions. These differences were related to differences between the two dysphoric groups in base rates of reported outcome occurrence and certainty of judgments. The findings did not support depressive realism, the negative biasing effect of dysphoria on future predictions, or the contention that dysphorics are less accurate because they predict either more atypical or overly optimistic outcomes.

Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Vol. 24, No. 8, 880-892 (1998)
DOI: 10.1177/0146167298248007


CiteULike    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    What's this?