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This version was published on August 1, 2007
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Vol. 33, No. 8, 1064-1075 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/0146167207301024
© 2007 Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Do People Brace Sensibly? Risk Judgments and Event Likelihood

Kate Sweeny

University of Florida, kdockery{at}ufl.edu

James A. Shepperd

University of Florida, shepperd{at}ufl.edu

Previous research has shown that people become pessimistic about potentially bad news to "brace for the worst." Three studies examined whether people brace differently for rare and common negative events. Results reveal that people brace more for rare negative events than for common negative events (Studies 1-3a), but only when the event is self-relevant (Study 3b). Results also show that people brace more for rare events when feedback is imminent (Study 1), when negative outcomes are salient (Study 2), and when the outcomes are important or consequential (Study 3a). The authors discuss several possible explanations for the findings, including ignorance of the base rate, random responding, and anchoring and adjustment, and ultimately suggest that people may brace "enough."

Key Words: optimism • pessimism • expectations • risk judgments • bracing


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