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This version was published on September 1, 2007
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, Vol. 33, No. 9, 1187-1194 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/0146167207303017
© 2007 Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

The Confluence Model: Birth Order as a Within-Family or Between-Family Dynamic?

R. B. Zajonc

Stanford University

Frank J. Sulloway

University of California–Berkeley, sulloway{at}berkeley.edu

The confluence model explains birth-order differences in intellectual performance by quantifying the changing dynamics within the family. Wichman, Rodgers, and MacCallum (2006) claimed that these differences are a between-family phenomenon—and hence are not directly related to birth order itself. The study design and analyses presented by Wichman et al. nevertheless suffer from crucial shortcomings, including their use of unfocused tests, which cause statistically significant trends to be overlooked. In addition, Wichman et al. treated birth-order effects as a linear phenomenon thereby ignoring the confluence model's prediction that these two samples may manifest opposing results based on age. This article cites between- and within-family data that demonstrate systematic birth-order effects as predicted by the confluence model. The corpus of evidence invoked here offers strong support for the assumption of the confluence model that birth-order differences in intellectual performance are primarily a within-family phenomenon.

Key Words: birth order • confluence model • intellectual performance


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A. L. Wichman, J. Lee Rodgers, and R. C. MacCallum
Birth Order Has No Effect on Intelligence: A Reply and Extension of Previous Findings
Pers Soc Psychol Bull, September 1, 2007; 33(9): 1195 - 1200.
[Abstract] [PDF]