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First published on May 14, 2007, doi:10.1177/0146167207301024

Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 2007;33:1064.

A more recent version of this article appeared on August 1, 2007

Article

Do People Brace Sensibly? Risk Judgments and Event Likelihood

Kate Sweeny* James A. Shepperd

University of Florida

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: kdockery{at}ufl.edu.


  Abstract
Previous research has shown that people become pessimistic about potentially bad news to "brace for the worst." Three studies examined whether people brace differently for rare and common negative events. Results reveal that people brace more for rare negative events than for common negative events (Studies 1-3a), but only when the event is self-relevant (Study 3b). Results also show that people brace more for rare events when feedback is imminent (Study 1), when negative outcomes are salient (Study 2), and when the outcomes are important or consequential (Study 3a). The authors discuss several possible explanations for the findings, including ignorance of the base rate, random responding, and anchoring and adjustment, and ultimately suggest that people may brace "enough."
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